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“东坡云:事如春梦了无痕,苟不记笔墨,未免有辜彼苍之厚”,所愧知识短浅,不过记其所学所想,若必考订其“文法”,恐贻笑大方矣。-张其仔学沈复“浮生六记”。

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气候协议为何令所有人不快  

2009-12-20 10:03:21|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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                                               张其仔

美国总统奥巴马宣称,气候变化协议取得突破,但所有人都不满意.应对气候变化是全人类共同应对的挑战,每人国家都需要为此付出努力,所有人都不满意的结果应是正常的.

Louise Gray对各方为何都不满意,写个一个简短的文章,有些意思,现部分转译如下(后附英文).

    1,控制目标令最脆弱国家不快.协议承认把全球气候变化控制在2度以内,而低地和岛国期望的目标则是1.5度,否则它们将面临被淹的危险.

2,按科学家的计算,要达到把温度控制在2度以内目标,到2050年必须减排50%,协议中只是提出根据科学研究,进行大幅度减排,令科学家不快.

3,协议中没有为发达国家设定减排目标,要求发展中国家采取行动减排,让发展中国家不快.

    4,协议中要求发展中国家的减排行动,其衡量可以在国内实施,但必须向全球公开,事实上是接受监督,令中国十分不快.

5,英国和欧盟提出了雄心勃勃的计划,协议对此没有充分反映,令其不快.

6,古巴等国批评,协议反映的是资本主义的强权.

虽然各方都不十分满意,但通观协议全文,我的评论是:气候变化谈判协议的天平正悄然偏向发达国家.

     1,协议事实上已把发展中国家分为三种类型:新兴经济体,最穷和最脆弱国家.前者正被要求承担越来越多责任,正在被排除至发达国家技术和援助之外.

     2,发展中国家要求为减排承担责任,虽然不列示目标,但必须列示行动.发展中国家要求采取有效的方法,减少排放.

     3,发展中国家本来可实行自主减排,本来不承担强制性国际义务,但协议中列出的须向全球公开其减排行动和减排效果,事实上,发展中国家事实上已正在承担国际义务.

     4,协议中没有反对碳关税条款,使发展中国家在以后的谈判中处于被动地位.

(为了更好地理解协议,本文将协义英文和美总统讲话全文附后,供参考)

Copenhagen Accord: Questions and Answers

How will Copenhagen work, how much will it cost, and why is there so much unhappiness with the outcome?

Louise Gray, environment correspondent, in Copenhagen

Published: 7:41PM GMT 19 Dec 2009

What has the world signed up to?

For the first time the world has agreed that the global temperature rise must be kept below 2C (3.6F) to avoid catastrophic climate change. However, this is a less ambitious target than the 1.5C limit that low-lying and island nations wanted, fearing that they will otherwise be engulfed by rising sea levels.

 Scientists say even a 2C limit this will require cutting greenhouse gases by at least 50 per cent by 2050. But any reference to such a specific goal was removed after objections from China and replaced with an agreement that "deep cuts" will be made "according to science". A legally-binding target for developed countries was also removed in favour of allowing rich countries to set their own targets, with which they will come forward by February. Developing countries have, for the first time, been asked to "take action" to cut emissions.

How will the new agreement be monitored?

How to measure cuts in greenhouse gases is such a sticky question that it almost caused the talks to collapse. China refused to allow monitors from abroad to scrutinise its internal efforts, but America insisted on some kind of watch being kept. The accord will allow countries to measure their own actions but publish full results globally. Satellites may be used to keep a watch on emissions from above.

Who will have to to pay for it - and how much?

There will be $10bn (£6bn) a year "fast start" funding for the poorest and most vulnerable countries to protect themselves from the impact of drought and floods caused by global warming over the next three years. Britain has promised £1.5bn towards this. By 2020 the world is to "mobilise" $100bn a year through a "Copenhagen Green Climate Fund", which will also help poorer countries halt deforestation and switch to greener technology. Britain may pay £1bn a year towards this.

Does the Accord have any legal standing?

No. It was never going to be more than a political agreement. Britain wanted this to include an explicit promise to convert the text into a legally binding treaty as soon as possible. But in the rush by exhausted leaders to get an agreement in the early hours of the morning, India and China had even this removed.

Why are people so unhappy?

Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua objected that the Accord was a "capitalist conspiracy" pushed though by "Yankee imperialists", though they later allowed the UN to pass it. More seriously, the low-lying and island nations fear that the temperature target is too lax and will allow sea levels to rise too far. The US feels that China has wriggled out of a legitimate request to have its emissions independently measured. China is angry at having to cut its emissions at all. The British Government has won little credit and Gordon Brown's original plans for a tough global deal have all but evaporated.

So has it pleased anyone?

The fact that all United Nations members now accepts that climate change is "one of the greatest challenges of our time", and that the temperature rise must be kept below 2C, has been welcomed by politicians including Barack Obama as a step forward. But the overall deal is so weak that even this may be lost.

The $30bn "fast start" fund will help poor countries in immediate need but it is still not clear where most of the money will come from. To provide $100bn a year by 2020 will require new finance mechanisms like a global carbon market or taxes on aviation which are still a long way off.

A scheme to end deforestation by paying poor countries to help preserve their trees has been welcomed by many as a more concrete achievement, but it will not take effect for another year.

What comes next?

Over the next 12 months there will be meetings to try to put more flesh on the outlines of the Accord, and Britain is still pushing hard for it to be converted into a legally-binding treaty - which would need another meeting of world leaders.

Meanwhile there will be pressure on the developed nations to be ambitious with their own emissions cuts targets, to be set next year. The EU has offered to cut emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020, but may increase this to 30 per cent if other big countries follow suit. Britain may volunteer to go even further, to 42 per cent.

A meeting of all UN members' climate change negotiators is planned to be held in Bonn in June, and their annual conference is due in Mexico in December.

Copenhagen Accord 

The Heads of State, Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads of delegation present at the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen, In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2, Being guided by the principles and provisions of the Convention, Noting the results of work done by the two Ad hoc Working Groups, Endorsing decision x/CP.15 on the Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action and decision x/CMP.5 that requests the Ad hoc Working Group on Further Commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol to continue its work, Have agreed on this Copenhagen Accord which is operational immediately. 

1. We underline that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. We emphasise our strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, we shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change. We recognize the critical impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support. GE.09-71523 

FCCC/CP/2009/L.7 Page 2 

2. We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science, and as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity. We should cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries and that a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development. 

3. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to ensure the implementation of the Convention by enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, especially least developed countries, small island developing States and Africa. We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries. 

4. Annex I Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020, to be submitted in the format given in Appendix I by Annex I Parties to the secretariat by 31 January 2010 for compilation in an INF document. Annex I Parties that are Party to the Kyoto Protocol will thereby further strengthen the emissions reductions initiated by the Kyoto Protocol. Delivery of reductions and financing by developed countries will be measured, reported and verified in accordance with existing and any further guidelines adopted by the Conference of the Parties, and will ensure that accounting of such targets and finance is rigorous, robust and transparent. 

5. Non-Annex I Parties to the Convention will implement mitigation actions, including those to be submitted to the secretariat by non-Annex I Parties in the format given in Appendix II by 31 January 2010, for compilation in an INF document, consistent with Article 4.1 and Article 4.7 and in the context of sustainable development. Least developed countries and small island developing States may undertake actions voluntarily and on the basis of support. Mitigation actions subsequently taken and envisaged by Non-Annex I Parties, including national inventory reports, shall be communicated through national communications consistent with Article 12.1(b) every two years on the basis of guidelines to be adopted by the Conference of the Parties. Those mitigation actions in national communications or otherwise communicated to the Secretariat will be added to the list in appendix II. Mitigation actions taken by Non-Annex I Parties will be subject to their domestic measurement, reporting and verification the result of which will be reported through their national communications every two years. Non-Annex I Parties will communicate information on the implementation of their actions through National Communications, with provisions for international consultations and analysis under clearly defined guidelines that will ensure that national sovereignty is respected. Nationally appropriate mitigation actions seeking international support will be recorded in a registry along with relevant technology, finance and capacity building support. Those actions supported will be added to the list in appendix II. These supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification in accordance with guidelines adopted by the Conference of the Parties. 

6. We recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests and agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries. 

7. We decide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions. Developing countries, especially those with low emitting economies should be provided incentives to continue to develop on a low emission pathway. 

8. Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding as well as improved access shall be provided to developing countries, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, to enable and support enhanced action on mitigation, including substantial finance to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD-plus), adaptation, technology development and transfer and capacity-building, for enhanced implementation of the Convention. The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments through international institutions, approaching USD 30 billion for the period 2010 . 2012 with balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation. Funding for adaptation will be prioritized for the most vulnerable developing countries, such as the least developed countries, small island developing States and Africa. In the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, developed countries commit to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. This funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance. New multilateral funding for adaptation will be delivered through effective and efficient fund arrangements, with a governance structure providing for equal representation of developed and developing countries. A significant portion of such funding should flow through the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. 

9. To this end, a High Level Panel will be established under the guidance of and accountable to the Conference of the Parties to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue, including alternative sources of finance, towards meeting this goal. 

10. We decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention to support projects, programme, policies and other activities in developing countries related to mitigation including REDD-plus, adaptation, capacity-building, technology development and transfer. 

11. In order to enhance action on development and transfer of technology we decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer in support of action on adaptation and mitigation that will be guided by a country-driven approach and be based on national circumstances and priorities. 

12. We call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be completed by 2015, including in light of the Convention.s ultimate objective. This would include consideration of strengthening the long-term goal referencing various matters presented by the science, including in relation to temperature rises of 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

APPENDIX I 

Quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 

Annex I Parties Quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 Emissions reduction in 2020 Base year 

APPENDIX II 

Nationally appropriate mitigation actions of developing country Parties 

Non-Annex I Actions

 

The full text of President Obama's prepared remarks given at the UN climate change conference are below:

Good morning. It's an honor to for me to join this distinguished group of leaders from nations around the world. We come together here in Copenhagen because climate change poses a grave and growing danger to our people. You would not be here unless you - like me - were convinced that this danger is real. This is not fiction, this is science. Unchecked, climate change will pose unacceptable risks to our security, our economies, and our planet. That much we know.

So the question before us is no longer the nature of the challenge - the question is our capacity to meet it. For while the reality of climate change is not in doubt, our ability to take collective action hangs in the balance.

I believe that we can act boldly, and decisively, in the face of this common threat. And that is why I have come here today.

As the world's largest economy and the world's second largest emitter, America bears our share of responsibility in addressing climate change, and we intend to meet that responsibility. That is why we have renewed our leadership within international climate negotiations, and worked with other nations to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. And that is why we have taken bold action at home - by making historic investments in renewable energy; by putting our people to work increasing efficiency in our homes and buildings; and by pursuing comprehensive legislation to transform to a clean energy economy.

These actions are ambitious, and we are taking them not simply to meet our global responsibilities. We are convinced that changing the way that we produce and use energy is essential to America's economic future - that it will create millions of new jobs, power new industry, keep us competitive, and spark new innovation. And we are convinced that changing the way we use energy is essential to America's national security, because it will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and help us deal with some of the dangers posed by climate change.

So America is going to continue on this course of action no matter what happens in Copenhagen. But we will all be stronger and safer and more secure if we act together. That is why it is in our mutual interest to achieve a global accord in which we agree to take certain steps, and to hold each other accountable for our commitments.

After months of talk, and two weeks of negotiations, I believe that the pieces of that accord are now clear.

First, all major economies must put forward decisive national actions that will reduce their emissions, and begin to turn the corner on climate change. I'm pleased that many of us have already done so, and I'm confident that America will fulfill the commitments that we have made: cutting our emissions in the range of 17 percent by 2020, and by more than 80 percent by 2050 in line with final legislation.

 

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