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“东坡云:事如春梦了无痕,苟不记笔墨,未免有辜彼苍之厚”,所愧知识短浅,不过记其所学所想,若必考订其“文法”,恐贻笑大方矣。-张其仔学沈复“浮生六记”。

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靠货币汇率法案挽救美数百万工作是痴人说梦  

2011-10-12 08:22:12|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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美国会参议院11日以63票赞成、35票反对的投票结果,通过了《2011年货币汇率监督改革法案》。这个法案之所以通过,其中一个重要原因,说是因为可以为美国创造新工作岗位,据说是可以创造160多万个新的工作岗位。

对中国对贸易究竟让美国失去了多少工作岗位。经济学家Fred Bergston估计是,人民币汇率低估,让美失去了1百万个工作岗位。克鲁格曼的估计是150万。美国经济政策研究所的估计,解决人民币汇率低估,可以为美创造200多万个工作岗位。有人估计是从2011年以来,中美贸易让美失去280多万个工作。种种数字,美国济学家讲的一个一个又一个故事,让人眼花燎乱。但事实远远不会如此。其中的一个重要原因在于,美国人已经不会做或不愿做中国人在做的事。

去过美国的人会知道,美国现在是所谓的白领社会,很多公司,看起来,就像中国人过去所说的皮包公司,几个人,一个办公室,几部电话,几台电脑。这些人已经失去到生产线上工作的能力。即便有也不会愿到去。美国太习惯于于在华尔街、在办公室挣美元了,要改变这个习惯,短期内决难做到。这就好比中国人,让一个大学教授、政府官员到工厂去生产产品,心理上很难习惯。没有一代人,这个习惯很难改变.

美国的经济学家虽然屡会诺奖,但对现实经济的理解上不必中国经济学家强多少。对汇率在解决创造美工作岗位的作用,必定会再次失算。

 

SUMMARY AS OF:
9/22/2011--Introduced.

Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011 - Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to: (1) make public and report biannually to Congress on international monetary policy and currency exchange rates; and (2) appear, if requested, before certain congressional committees to testify regarding such reports.

Prescribes report contents, including: (1) an analysis of currency market developments and the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the currencies of major economies and trading partners of the United States, (2) a review of the economic and monetary policies of major economies and trading partners of the United States and an evaluation of how such policies impact currency exchange rates, and (3) a list of currencies designated as fundamentally misaligned currencies.

Instructs the Secretary to: (1) analyze semiannually the prevailing real effective exchange rates of foreign currencies; (2) determine whether any such currency is in fundamental misalignment; and (3) designate it for priority action if the issuing country engages in specified behavior, including excessive and prolonged official or quasi-official accumulation of foreign assets for balance of payments purposes.

Prescribes procedures for: (1) negotiations and consultations; and (2) actions in response to failure, including persistent failure, to adopt appropriate policies, or take identifiable action to eliminate the fundamental misalignment.

Requires the Secretary, before the United States approves a proposed change in the governance arrangement of any international financial institution, to determine whether any member of the international financial institution that would benefit from the proposed change, in the form of increased voting shares or representation, has a currency designated for priority action. Requires U.S. opposition to the proposed change if the Secretary renders an affirmative determination.

Amends the Tariff Act of 1930, for purposes of an antidumping investigation or review, to require an adjustment in the price used to establish export (and constructed export) prices, in the case of a fundamentally misaligned currency designated for priority action, by reducing such price by the percentage by which the domestic currency of the producer or exporter is undervalued in relation to the U.S. dollar.

Requires the administering authority, upon the filing of a petition by an interested party, to initiate a countervailing duty investigation or review to determine whether currency undervaluation by the government of, or any public entity within, a foreign country is providing, directly or indirectly, a countervailable subsidy to its exporters or products. Requires the same kind of countervailing duty investigation upon the designation of a foreign currency as a fundamentally misaligned currency for priority action.

Declares that the fact that such a subsidy is also provided in circumstances not involving export shall not, for that reason alone, mean it cannot be considered export contingent and actionable under a countervailing duty and antidumping duty proceeding.

Adds as a factor the administering authority must take into account in determining whether a foreign country is a nonmarket economy country the question of whether its currency is designated, or has been designated at any time over the five years before review of any nonmarket economy status, for priority action under this Act.

Establishes the Advisory Committee on International Exchange Rate Policy.

Repeals the Exchange Rates and International Economic Policy Coordination Act of 1988.

Author sarah Categories Blog

var addthis_product = 'wpp-261'; var addthis_config = {"data_track_clickback":true};var addthis_options = "facebook,twitter,email,print,bitly,more"; The bipartisan bill to end China’s unfair trade practice of currency manipulation passed in the Senate tonight by a vote of 63 to 35, with 15 Republicans joining Democrats to support it.

The legislation, called the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Act, provides tools to impose consequences on countries that manipulate their currency and consequently, cost us jobs.

Our nation simply can’t afford to have American jobs shipped overseas because some countries impose unfair trade practices. By making its goods artificially less expensive than they really are, countries manipulating their currency gain an unfair advantage in the global marketplace.

China’s currency manipulation, for example, has already cost three million American jobs — two million of which came from our manufacturing sector.
The bill that passed tonight could create 1.6 million American jobs.
As Nevada Senator Harry Reid put it: “American businesses don’t need special advantages to compete. They just need an even playing field.”

Currency manipulation not only costs jobs, it can lead to unsustainable trade deficits. Our trade deficit with China has jumped from $10 billion in 1990 to $273 billion today.

We hope this common-sense, bipartisan bill will pass in the House. It’s time to put an end to this unfair trade practice, and put Americans back to work.

Does China Currency Manipulation Hurt Us or Them?: News Analysis


Angst over jobs pressures politicians into risky policy realm; trade war imminent?

By Gil Weinreich, AdvisorOne

October 10, 2011

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As the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, China has made a killing on its portfolio of U.S. bonds – earning double-digit returns on its trillion-dollar Treasury holdings in just the past two months. And yet just as investors who do well on an investment sometimes regret the high frictional costs weighing down their returns, the Chinese, who presumably picked up a sweet $100-billion-plus profit on their U.S. bond investments could have done a lot better if their broker had not manipulated the exchange rate on its transactions.

No, China did not buy its bonds through BNY Mellon, which stands accused in federal and state lawsuits filed last week of cheating corporate clients through unfavorable rates in foreign exchange transactions – a charge the firm vigorously denies.

Rather, the cheating broker is none other than its own central bank, the Bank of China, which is widely believed to be suppressing the value of its currency despite pledges it would allow the renminbi to float freely. In other words, if China really allowed its currency to rise to its genuine market value, which it assured the U.S. it would do last year, the Bank of China could have gotten a lot more bang for its renminbi, and the U.S. would owe considerably more to China today.

All of which is to say that it is not so clear-cut who wins and who loses through Chinese currency manipulation, something that is sure to emerge in debates on the floor of the U.S. Senate on Monday as the upper chamber considers the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011. The bill enjoys wide bipartisan support in the Senate and final passage of the bill is expected Monday, though serious opposition in the Republican-controlled House may block a vote there.

The bill imposes tariffs on imports from China if the Chinese do not allow the free float of their currency. China’s foreign ministry reiterated today its view that passage of the bill could lead to a trade war between the two countries.

Despite the fact that Chinese currency manipulation is a many-splendored thing, limiting the purchasing power of its renminbi even while boosting its export-oriented manufacturing sector, the key issue on U.S. lawmakers’ minds is jobs.

Congressman Sander Levin (D-Mich.), writing last week in The Hill, cites economist Fred Bergston, who argues that Chinese currency manipulation costs Americans 1 million jobs, and also cites economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who puts the figure at closer to 1.5 million jobs. John Lott Jr., writing for Fox News, says passage of the bill will do far more damage to U.S. jobs, noting that in our highly integrated world economies, companies like Apple that rely on Chinese parts for its iPads and iPhones, will be forced to raise prices; he adds that higher import prices will trigger an increase in unemployment.

It remains unclear whether something like the China currency bill will eventually pass into law, but with a stubbornly high U.S. unemployment rate that has been north of 9% for two years now – during our economic recovery – the pressure on politicians in both parties to “do something” is not likely to diminish any time soon.

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