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“东坡云:事如春梦了无痕,苟不记笔墨,未免有辜彼苍之厚”,所愧知识短浅,不过记其所学所想,若必考订其“文法”,恐贻笑大方矣。-张其仔学沈复“浮生六记”。

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美国迟早会通过或类似通过人民币汇率操纵案  

2011-10-03 15:47:19|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |
 

美国参议院又要就人民币汇率操纵案向中国发难。这看起来是必然的。因为美国的经济,要想得到恢复,短期内,也无其它的办法。过去,当美国受到日本产品的冲击时,美国压日元升值,美国对日的贸易不平衡关系得到改善,日本的经济从此也受到了冲击。在美国人的眼中,让人民币升值,同样可以起到一箭双雕的效果:一方面提升美国产品的竞争力,另一方面,压制住中国这个竞争对手的强劲势头。

   在普通美国人的眼中,他们看待中国,就像看待当时的日本。一次到美国,走在小镇,好像是叫什么北欧小镇。(美国这个国家,虽然是世界上最强大的国家,但经济发展起来时,其表现,也惊人地和中国人相似。中国现在建房子,就有叫什么、加洲小镇、世界之窗。美国也有,还有什么像欧洲人一样,建城堡垒的。)。一位从我们旁边走过的美国夫妻,看到我们谈论道:中国就像当年的日本。言下之意,不过是说,中国人,别骄傲,你们迟早会像日本一样,在和美国的竞争中,处于下风。在美国人的心目中,他们看现在让人民币升值,就像看当年的让日本的日元升值.让人民币升值就成为美国百姓\政治家振奋美国的一根救命稻草.

Congress addresses Chinese currency manipulation

Senate takes up bill to punish China for manipulating currency

 

 Jim Abrams, Associated Press, On Sunday October 2, 2011, 1:12 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- After years of trying, Congress is taking another stab at retaliating against what many see as Chinese manipulation of its currency to make its exports to the United States cheaper and U.S. goods more expensive in China.

 

The Senate is expected to take up legislation Monday that would impose higher U.S. duties on Chinese products to offset the perceived advantage that critics say China gets by undervaluing its currency.

 

It's a political given here that China's economic policy has damaged American manufacturers and taken away American jobs.

 

Beijing denies that its exchange rate is responsible for the huge trade deficit that the United States has with China, and it's not clear that U.S. lawmakers have the political will to follow through.

 

The Senate bill has bipartisan support and is expected to clear a procedural hurdle Monday evening. But intense lobbying against it by American-based multinational corporations and their trade associations could spell trouble for the legislation.

 

In addition, the Obama administration, like the Bush administration before it, doesn't like the bill, saying quiet diplomacy is a better way to influence Chinese policy and warning that overt penalties could lead to a destructive trade fight.

 

Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., along with others, have tried for at least six years to pass legislation making it easier to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. That would help compensate for what they say is Beijing's effort to keep its currency, the yuan, undervalued against the dollar.

 

Under U.S. pressure, China did take steps last year that allowed for some flexibility in the exchange rate. But the yuan has risen only a few percentage points since then, and economists say it is still undervalued against the dollar by as much as 40 percent.

 

Schumer and others say that's a major reason that some 2 million U.S. jobs have been lost to Chinese competitors in the past decade and that the U.S. trade deficit with China last year hit a record $273 billion, accounting for 43 percent of the entire U.S. trade gap.

 

"They get away with economic murder and thus far our country has just said, `Oh, we don't care,'" Schumer said. "This legislation will send a huge shot across China's bow."

 

Among Republicans, presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has said he would penalize China for keeping its currency artificially low.

 

The Senate bill, which does not specifically mention China, has two main components:

 

--Up to now, the Treasury Department has had to declare that a country was willfully manipulating its currency to trigger a response, which is something the Bush and Obama administrations have avoided doing. The legislation would require Treasury to determine only that another country's currency is misaligned, then give its government 90 days to make corrections before countervailing duties are imposed.

 

--The bill makes it easier for specific industries to petition the Commerce Department for redress under claims that the misaligned currency of China or another country amounts to an export subsidy. That more narrowly focused provision passed the House last September on a 348-79 vote. The last Congress, however, ended before the Senate could take it up.

 

Supporters point to studies by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that say a 20 percent appreciation of the yuan would reduce the U.S. trade deficit by up to $120 billion and create a half-million U.S. jobs. The more liberal Economic Policy Institute estimates that a 28.5 percent appreciation would create more than 2 million jobs.

 

Opponents of the bill, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, whose members do business overseas, paint a different picture.

 

A letter to Senate leaders from more than 50 such groups warned that unilateral action against China would likely result in retaliation against U.S. exports to China, possibly violate World Trade Organization rules and do little to create U.S. jobs because other low-cost manufacturing countries would take up the slack if Chinese goods became more expensive.

 

There's also concern that a trade war with China would remove incentives for China to improve its record on intellectual property rights or cooperate in easing tensions with North Korea. The conservative Club for Growth, which holds sway among many Republicans, opposes the Senate bill, saying it would raise prices for American consumers.

 

China denies that the exchange rate is the cause of the huge trade imbalance, saying that the UnitedChina denies that the exchange rate is the cause of the huge trade imbalance, saying that the United States could help itself by lifting a ban on sales of high technology goods.

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